Carbon Path
Five years ago, 86% of global energy
production centered on coal, natural gas and petroleum. The bulk of the
remaining 14% is nuclear energy at 8% and a miniscule 6% effort for all others,
including solar, biomass, geothermal and wind. In the past five years, little
has changed.
The US has 25% of global coal reserves.
Accordingly, we are still blowing off the tops of mountains in Appalachia,
never mind the toxic sediment finding its way into Appalachian streams. After
all, we need it for our electric generating plants, over 50% powered by coal.
Natural gas consumption is rising but
it never can be a permanent substitute for petroleum in the transportation
sector. Transport (pipelines/LNG) of natural gas requires the building of such
resources which are not economic for a short-term solution.
Petroleum has reached peak production,
a condition hastened by ever-present US demand, but burgeoning demand from
Asian countries like China, India, South Korea, and Japan has put us over the
top. Unlike 1973’s oil crisis, this peak is permanent
It is curious that crude oil deposits
have taken between 50 to 300 million years to form, and yet we have managed to
burn roughly half of all global oil reserves in merely 125 years. However, when
you consider the rate of consumption now, 85 million barrels of oil used per
day (MBD), we will have perhaps five years before economic travail is evident.
With a usage curve predicting 130 MBD within 10 years, how long before it shuts
down our way of life, pushing up oil prices beyond affordability.
Many conservatives would dispute the
peak oil claim. So we should make it clear that the world is not running out of
oil itself, but rather its ability to produce high-quality, cheap and
economically extractable oil on demand. Thus Peak Oil is the point where world
production has peaked due to reduced access of economically extractable oil.
So once you add global warming to Peak
Oil, human beings could be headed for EndTimes, the language of the religious
right.
At any rate, the problem is urgent.
While the 1970s gave us a scare about
the dwindling supply of oil and our foreign dependence, we have had a
succession of leaders who failed as our stewards. But with global warming evidence mounting and
with Middle East tension increasing, the cry for breaking our oil addiction has
grown over the last decade, especially among prudent scientists.
But a Congress, immune to long-range
planning or even a modicum of visionary thinking, has ignored the clarion call.
First the Gingrich Congress, ideologically bound to the past, managed little
progress on anything other than trying to hang Bill Clinton.
In 2001 when the Bush administration
entered office, Dick Cheney and the energy industry rewrote energy policy
behind closed doors, setting progress back for a decade.
Next, after a Republican majority
rubberstamped a Bush-Cheney carbon-energy-fest, a 2006 Democrat majority cowered
and cringed under Republican intimidation. Only now with the Obama
administration and a clear majority, are Democrats in Congress beginning to
heed warnings about climate change.
But with a nation’s financial back
broken with outlandish military spending and deep recession, the Democrat majority, many who participated
in that rapacious spending spree, are still loathe to find money for promoting
new energy technologies.
We have heard the favorite strategy of
conservatives — more supply. If we opened the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
to drilling and began full production years into the future, we might find
enough to provide one million barrels a day for 30 years. This would delay the oil
crisis a few months and lead to a continuing high-carbon road.
Another false prophet for many is modern
technology. Reason should tell us it is not a magic bullet, but is hardware and
programming for running fossil fuels. It depends on an abundant underlying
fossil fuel base.
For decades, we have had only two
realistic strategies: increase the fuel economy of our vehicles and find one or
more alternative fuel sources that are abundant, low carbon, and affordable.
Both have been strongly fought by conservatives for a long time.
Even if we increase fuel economy for
cars and SUVs to 60 miles per gallon by 2030, we would still need half their
fuel to be zero carbon. One alternative fuel is even remotely plausible –
carbon-free electricity.
That is why the focus is on hybrids and electric cars.
Meanwhile, the media is only posturing, talking of switching to energy-saving light bulbs and turning off lights. It doesn’t want to rouse us out of our comfort zone. The daily priority of media ratings takes long-range survival off its radar.
Leaders must know that we need to choose a new path now or one will be forced upon us, a path that could well lead to war, hunger, drought, and dislocation. Not acting would be foolhardy, whether through self-delusion, greed, or ideology.
By
all evidence, our leaders still lack the courage to responsibly direct us, but then
again we lack the perception and the focus to force it upon them.
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