We are heading toward 7 billion people on our blue planet. Food is becoming more scarce in third-world countries while grain is doubling and tripling in price over the last few years.
Before George Bush became president, oil was $10 a barrel; a few days ago it hit $117 a barrel. Gas prices are approaching $4 a gallon in the U.S. while symptoms of economic travail become more evident.
Many say we are running out of planet to exploit for sustaining a burgeoning world population. And others predict that countries rich in that liquid gold (oil) will, failing discovery of alternative fuels, become the dominant world economic powers in only a few decades to come.
Before American fundamentalists attribute these words to doomsayers and envious critics of a superior way of life, we might want to look further at the evidence.
Is it pure speculation – investors looking for high returns at a time of low interest rates – that is driving up prices – another bubble to burst someday? People like American businessman, Warren Buffett, think so.
Is it rapidly growing demand from those emulating America’s profligate ways – countries like China and India clamoring for oil and raw materials? Or are we running out of oil to feed the growth frenzy, out of land to expand food production – generally cheap resources to exploit?
The first explanation would indicate withholding commodities from the market while we watch prices go through the ceiling. Then sell them at much higher prices. There doesn’t seem to be an inventory glut of food or oil, in spite of the downturn that seems to be underway.
Growing demand and depletion of resources seem to be a more evident phenomenon. Scientists for decades say that we have reached or are reaching peak oil production. Certainly for centuries (Eighteenth Century political economist, Thomas Malthus, for one) we have been told that much less than six billion people can be sustained on our planet.
Of course, there have always been innovations, new developments that have come along, and that is what a lot of people believe will happen again. It was oil discoveries, modern farming, growth industries, and so on.
But now we have huge demands for resources from the developing countries and a much larger population to sustain than there was in the 1970s era of long lines at the gas pumps and inflation. Now we have global warming that has caused years of drought in grain-producing countries.
And for almost a decade, the world has suffered chaos and environmental indecision due to pillaging, imperialistic American leadership. Furthermore, we have been saddled with irresponsible oil-men running the executive branch of our government.
But actually we can’t say that Congress has done nothing.
Congress passed the 2005 Energy Policy Act, mandating 7.5 billion gallons of ethanol be produced by 2012. Corn farmers were ecstatic, and promptly produced a record 6.6 billion gallons last year. The Energy Act of 2007 increased the mandate to 9 billion gallons by 2008, and ramped it up to 36 billion gallons by 2022.
So, isn’t that good? Well, unfortunately that is a big part of why food prices have gone through the roof. You remember we mentioned that grain prices were doubling and tripling.
Ninety-five percent of ethanol is produced from corn. Seventeen percent of the U.S. corn crop went to ethanol. Furthermore, producing biofuels increases pesticide use, is inefficient, does not prevent climate change and competes for land that could be used to grow food for humans. Because our government subsidizes the growth of corn for ethanol, guess which use gets precedence.
Our farm-state representatives did realize that ethanol would get them re-elected, but did not consider that growing corn for ethanol uses more resources, including natural-gas produced fertilizer, a finite resource.
So where does this all leave us? The global market answer is higher prices for commodities, food shortages, and a looming recession.
Some experts are already looking at the prospects for a new world order with resource-rich countries having the advantage.
The major energy-surplus states are few. Ten oil-rich states possess over 82 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves. Their rank by volume: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, Russia, Libya, Kazakhstan and Nigeria. Three countries have the bulk of natural gas. Russia, Iran and Qatarharbor have almost 56 percent of the world supply.
So who can cash in on the dramatic rise in global energy prices? In 2005 the oil-exporting countries collected an estimated $970 billion from importing countries. Giant investment accounts are filled with yens, dollars, and euros to be used for acquiring valuable assets around the world, including US corporations, buildings, and infrastructure.
What are we doing? Our answer is to spend $12 billion a month in Iraq, supposedly for sweet deals for American oil companies.
Should our policy be to invade them all, suck up to them, threaten them, or a combination of intelligent policies -- diplomacy, compromise and accelerating domestic research for alternative sources of energy.
Sanity would endorse the latter approach!
How have our leaders been doing so far?
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